Authors: Lipset
Summary: This short entry of less than 900 words defines public opinion polling, explores its political uses and significance, considers the methods by which opinion data is gathered, and discusses polling's development and implications.
The entry defines public opinion polling as a research method that uses data collected through representative samples to analyze citizen's positions on various issues. These studies are invaluable to political leaders whether or not they are democratically elected. As a result, the use of polling has increased steadily and to the point where many scholars and political observers have become concerned about the implications of such widespread use and dependence upon public opinion polls. In fact, polling has become so prevalent during election campaigns that some modern democracies have actually passed laws regulating the use of polls.
A valid and acceptable public opinion poll must meet a number of specific established criteria, all of which are rigorous sampling methods designed to achieve the highest degree of representation possible. These criteria include sample construction, question wording and placement and refusal rate. Also, polling data usually includes a measure of sampling error to indicate the probability of error due to the polling instrument itself.
George Gallup developed the first national public opinion poll in 1936 during a national American election. He published his public opinion data in syndicated newspapers, thus popularizing polling and contributing to its establishment as a significant political instrument. Following Gallup's example, virtually every developed nation in the world now conducts public opinion polls. Consequently, polling has become an established political institution that both citizens and elected politicians regard as an important medium of political participation and communication.